How are we doing so far?

precision/recall curve for 03-14 to 03-28. The red curve would be random guessing.

Various tweaks to the model over the last few days, as well as some backdating and thinking about how to make picks. I'm still working on some formatting/html stuff to make this stuff more browsable but in general you can find the picks after the close each day at, for example, /stocks/topStockPicks-2013-04-03.html, and the latest at /stocks/latestStockPicks. Full backdated index at http://simra.net/stocks.

I'm running the job by hand each night, for now. Small cap equities have largely been advancing lately which makes beating the market harder. For now I'm looking for thresholds so I can have better-than-random precision at picking stocks that advance for the day. This is not the same as ROI but we'll get there. Currently, score thresholds above about 50 are looking promising, though they are relatively rare. Suffice to say this is a hard problem space. :-)

Graph: precision/recall curve for 03-14 to 03-28. The red curve would be random guessing.